An Intrinsic Calculation For Absolute Software Corporation (TSE:ABST) Suggests It’s 48% Undervalued

Today we’ll do a simple run through of a valuation method used to estimate the attractiveness of Absolute Software Corporation (TSE:ABST) as an investment opportunity by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. This will be done using the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Models like these may appear beyond the comprehension of a lay person, but they’re fairly easy to follow.

We generally believe that the company’s value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, the DCF is just one valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the rationale behind this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model.

View our latest analysis for Absolute Software

Is Absolute Software Fairly Valued?

We’re using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of the company’s growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren’t available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

Levered FCF ($, Millions)

US$50.9m

US$53.7m

US$56.0m

US$57.9m

US$59.6m

US$61.2m

US$62.5m

US$63.8m

US$65.1m

US$66.3m

Growth Rate Estimate Source

Analyst x2

Est @ 5.41%

Est @ 4.28%

Est @ 3.48%

Est @ 2.93%

Est @ 2.54%

Est @ 2.27%

Est @ 2.08%

Est @ 1.94%

Est @ 1.85%

Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 6.9%

US$47.6

US$47.0

US$45.8

US$44.4

US$42.7

US$41.0

US$39.2

US$37.4

US$35.7

US$34.0

(“Est” = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$414m

The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business’s cash flow after the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country’s GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (1.6%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year ‘growth’ period, we discount future cash flows to today’s value, using a cost of equity of 6.9%.

Value Terminal (TV)= FCF2032 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$66m× (1 + 1.6%) ÷ (6.9%– 1.6%) = US$1.3b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= US$1.3b÷ (1 + 6.9%)10= US$656m

The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is US$1.1b. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of CA$13.9, the company appears quite undervalued at a 48% discount to where the stock price trades currently. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not need down to the last cent.

dcf

Important Assumptions

The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. You don’t have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company’s future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company’s potential performance. Given that we are looking at Absolute Software as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we’ve used 6.9%, which is based on a levered beta of 1,243. Beta is a measure of a stock’s volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our from the industry average beta of comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0 globally, is a reasonable range for a stable business.

Next Steps:

Whilst important, the DCF calculation shouldn’t be the only metric you look at when researching a company. It’s not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Rather it should be seen as a guide to “what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?” If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. Why is the intrinsic value higher than the current share price? For Absolute Software, we’ve compiled three important factors you should further examine:

  1. risks: We feel that you should assess the 3 warning signs for Absolute Software (1 is potentially serious!) we’ve flagged before making an investment in the company.

  2. Future Earnings: How does ABST’s growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.

  3. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!

PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every Canadian stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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